Insights
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Crypto is the last bastion of free markets, where creative destruction is still allowed
Clearly there are lessons to learn and soul searching required. But contrary to the commentary from many pundits, the cleanse under way in crypto 2022 is one of its biggest strengths.
Is bitcoin’s culture principled or dogmatic?
Bitcoin stands for itself and it is not controlled by any single party. The blocksize war entrenched these valuable principles but also inserted militaristic dogmatism into the culture.
Market Review (July 2022): Marathon, not a Sprint
This is a marathon, not a sprint. These are great levels for long-term investors to build allocations. However further volatility should be expected over the coming months.
CRYPTO YIELD: MASKING CREdit RISKS and leverage ALL ALONG?
Misplaced demand for stability, centralization and rehypothecation in crypto yield products masked deep credit risks and leverage under the hood. Crypto is violently solving these challenges and will arise from the liquidations stronger than before but there are major learnings to digest on that path.
Market Review (May 2022): Fed preparing for capitulation
More pain expected in crypto over the coming months as Luna unwind takes demand into bear market territory but we are approaching the bottom of the macro cycle, the Fed is preparing for loosening in 2023 and creative destructive is taking place.
Scepticism pays during "crypto's lehman's"
Conservatism pays in crypto winters, but creative destruction will see the industry emerge stronger, no matter the regulatory consequences.
Market Review: Bond holder rout
Rising Treasury yields will likely send the US economy into a recession, pressure the US dollar higher and tighten global liquidity, which is the biggest risk to bitcoin over the coming months
Market Review (March 2022): enhanced reserve asset credibility
The global monetary system is shifting and evidence is stacking up that bitcoin has a role to play in that transition as Russia takes further steps away from the US dollar.
Sanctions and War raise importance of Border-less, Censorship Resistant tech
We will only know in hindsight, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting financial response from the west could be pivotal in the evolution of the global monetary system.
Rogue State Demand?
Rogue state demand is potentially a bullish price catalyst, and at the same time it is a PR nightmare. It is critical to return to the principles guiding your decision making to ensure you are not caught up in the narrative
2021 Review and 2022 Outlook
The market structure has changed. A protracted bear market is unlikely. Fed tightening could create a tougher year for crypto but capital deployment will still result in bright sparks as numerous new entities are compelled to turn towards this powerful decentralized technology. Watch the Fed, the SEC and US stablecoin regulation closely to assess if we out/underperform expectations.
Co-opted by Wall Street – Bitcoin’s Biggest Risk?
Wall Street’s growing importance is unavoidable as bitcoin goes mainstream, but correlations will not rise indefinitely and bitcoin’s independence remains in the hands of everyday users like me and you.
The geopolitical event of the decade
While decentralised bitcoin has displayed its resilience to regulation, bans and decreased the probability of a 51% attacks, centralised China may have handed a critical technology of the future to its peers.
Bitcoin is the Reserve Asset of Crypto
There is immense value in the broader crypto ecosystem of decentralised financial technologies but the bright shiny lights of the fastest appreciating token also pose a risk.
Stablecoins – bitcoin’s Pandora’s box
Stablecoins are an important and revealing innovation. With deep liquidity, lightning-fast settlement, and dramatic user growth these crypto USDs pose important questions for regulators and traditional financial markets.
The ESG Solution
The environment is precious, resources are scarce, and we are compelled to sustain this beautiful planet for future generations. Bitcoin’s detractors single out bitcoin mining as regressive and environmentally damaging, which catches the eyes of the increasingly powerful ESG and green movements. But this approach reveals a gross misunderstanding of the technology.
Worried about a ban? Then you need bitcoin more than you think
Skeptics often argue that governments will ban Bitcoin when it becomes too important and threatens national sovereignty. At least these critics understand Bitcoin’s importance and the power that state currency monopolies exert over us. What they fail to understand
When bitcoin is fundamental & legacy markets are idiosyncratic
Today, bitcoin is idiosyncratic to traditional financial markets. Unlike bonds, equity and property, bitcoin’s returns are uncorrelated with economic growth, inflation, or risk premia.
Scarce digital tech (tesla) is not digital sound money (bitcoin)
Tesla has announced that it purchased $1.5bn worth of bitcoin in Q4 2020. Bitcoin adoption by a globally renown company is exciting, and it’ll probably trigger the next phase in this bitcoin bull-market, but I’ve got mixed emotions.
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