MSTR’s optically risky strategy is the logical conclusion to today’s monetary conditions and is absorbing bond markets into bitcoin’s black hole

ETFs are undoubtedly positive but Bitcoin’s core decentralization principle must be vehemently protected.

Price weakness presents an incredible opportunity to gain exposure in the early stages of an institution-led crypto bull market

The bitcoin ETF is a clear driver behind remarked BTC strength and the 6-18 month outlook remains very constructive, but there is a risk price becomes stretched as we launch into the high $40Ks.

Bitcoin has entered the next phase in this cycle - its outperformance signals foundational strength for the forthcoming bull market and potential improvement in high-beta assets

While the crypto poses a challenge to fiat currencies during a monetary regime change, through stablecoins crypto is simultaneously reinforcing USD dominance amongst fiat currencies

PayPal's stablecoin (PYUSD) is a major step in the integration between crypto and traditional financial markets. This move not only underscores the potential of crypto but also hints at a possible pendulum shift in the landscape of US crypto regulation

The world is in the midst of a monetary regime change. Bitcoin could have a role to play in a future monetary system, which creates a compelling argument to allocate to the asset class. Central banks cannot admit it but their actions reveal agreement with our thesis after they amassed record gold purchases in 2022.

Eventually the torrential tides of technology, freedom and crypto will prevail but, for now, authorities are trying to maintain control through marketing structurally unsound fiat money as a technological upgrade.

Liz Warren’s attack on the crypto industry strengthened bitcoin’s value proposition, highlighting the ever-present bank run risk within illiquid and highly leveraged banks.

Decentralised financial technologies remain difficult to regulate and the world needs this force for financial freedom so developers, entrepreneurs, investors and consumers will continue to experiment with it in spite of the more reactive approach to regulation in the US.

The 2023 outlook is clearly more optimistic than 2022, but this is not a signal that the challenges are entirely behind us

A challenging 2022 is expected to give way to a choppy but upside biased 2023 with bitcoin and ethereum surprising to the upside and great opportunities to add value

While painful, FTX’s scandalous fraud does not reflect on the underlying technology, and it galvanizes people to return to the principles of crypto

Short-covering appears to have trigger an upside break of a declining volatility range and we expect it may continue into the mid-$20K’s.

Central banks’ inability to maintain monetary integrity creates a compelling argument for alternative monetary technologies, like bitcoin, and that case will grow stronger as central banks pivot to looser monetary policy over the coming quarters.

Ethereum’s merge to Proof of Stake serves as a fascinating crypto focused event in the face of tough trad-fi macro conditions. Eventual implementation of the complex adjustment from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake may be exciting but it also leaves numerous question marks for censorship, incentives and the role of energy. We continue to view ETH as a complimentary high-beta asset to BTC reserve asset qualities.